<%@LANGUAGE="VBSCRIPT" CODEPAGE="1252"%> Moon phase theory. Part four
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The proof of the pudding is in the eating

We can discuss the merits of any theory, but it’s only when you put it to the test that you really get to see the true picture. And the only way to do that in a totally unbiased way is to do the fishing first, without any foreknowledge of the predictions, and then to bring the two together to compare.

And that’s exactly what I did, using 24 barbel sessions from the summer/autumn of 2006 and seeing how it all worked out. And bear in mind that the first time I saw any predictions whatsoever, was when I went to a moon theory site in April 2007 and extracted the relevant information from the archive postings.

Anyway, let the figures speak for themselves. And with a hit rate of 7 out of 24, that sums up why for me I don’t place any emphasis on the theory. If I were a betting man I would say that a bind man hitting a dartboard from four meters had better odds than that.


Prediction
Catch
Fact
Accuracy
excellent 1 barbel 7-7-0 good wrong
excellent blank slow wrong
excellent 1 barbel 10-3-0 excellent correct
excellent 1 small chub slow wrong
excellent 1 chub, 1 bream slow wrong
excellent 1 barbel 6-9-0 good wrong
excellent 1 bream slow wrong
good 1 barbel 10-3-0 excellent wrong
slow blank slow correct
excellent blank slow wrong
excellent 1 barbel 10-7-0 excellent correct
slow blank slow correct
slow blank slow correct
excellent blank slow wrong
slow blank slow correct
excellent blank slow wrong
excellent 1 barbel 12-4-0 excellent correct
good blank slow wrong
good blank slow wrong
excellent

blank

slow wrong
excellent blank slow wrong
excellent 2 barbel 7-7-8, 6-5-0 good wrong
excellent 2 barbel 8-1-0, 4-0-0 good wrong
slow 2 barbel 10-2-0, 9-7-0 excellent wrong

 

 

 

 

 

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